Что делать ?
I am currently working as Postdoc for the ERC project SEISMAZE at the Seismology department of IPGP.
My research interest is focused on the study of the temporal and spatial evolution of the seismicity in a high seismic risk zone, in order to characterize the complex system which generates the earthquakes – the Earth’s crust – and individuate precursors of the “black swan” phenomenon : a great earthquake.
The main field of my research is the study of the seismic source.
The characterization of a seismic source is a fundamental step in the description of the mechanisms of generation and propagation of an earthquake; understanding the relationship between the energy budget and the size of a seismic rupture, allows to tackle the upscaling problem from microseismicity to large events. Systematic comparison between existing methodologies for source parameters estimation highlighted the lack of robustness of the results, due to the high correlation among the parameters.
I developed a method which consists in a fully probabilistic approach : based on a Markov chain global optimization technique, and on the conjunction of states of information probabilistic framework, it provides an estimation of the joint probability density function in the parameter space; this allows to obtain a robust information about the expected values for the source parameters, with consistent estimation of uncertainties accounting for parameter correlation.