Что делать ?

My research interest is focused on the study of temporal and spatial evolution of the seismicity in a high seismic risk zone, in order to characterize the complex system which generates the earthquakes – the Earth’s crust – and better investigate possible precursors of the *black swan* phenomenon: a great earthquake.

The main field of my research is the study of the seismic source.

The characterization of the seismic source is a fundamental step in the description of the mechanisms of generation and propagation of an earthquake. Understand the relationship between the energy budget and the size of a seismic rupture allows to tackle the upscaling problem from microseismicity to large events.

I developed a methodology to estimate earthquake source parameters from a fully probabilistic inversion of single-station displacement spectra. It is based on a *Markov chain* global optimization technique, and on the *conjunction of states of information* probabilistic framework (Tarantola, 2005). The final output is the joint a-posteriori probability density function in a low-dimensional representation of the parameter space. This object allows to obtain a robust information about the expected values for the source parameters, with a reliable estimation of uncertainties accounting for between-parameter correlations and frequency bandwidth limitation.

[ On the top, the view from the ISS taken by the cosmonaut **Серге́й Ряза́нский** ]